This isn't a post about poker.

This is post about understanding what's a good bet, what's a bad bet , and how stupidity reveals itself.

'The future' is an unknown quantity.

You can only make you decisions based on what is , in the hope it correlates with a future you would desire as preferable, over non preferable.

This means you have to 'value bet' (on the future).

What is 'Value Bet', in Poker?

A value bet in poker, is a bet made with a strong hand in the hopes of getting called by worse hands. It’s an extremely important aspect of poker strategy, especially in games where our opponents have a tendency to call our bets with too many holdings. In terms of rough maths, a value bet needs to be good over 50% of the time when called in order to generate profit.
(888.com definition).

With that in mind, and bringing it into context of Hive, the question now becomes:

Is downvoting posts that are not spam or plagiarism, a good value bet?

Using my account as one of many examples, let's look into it.

This hypothesis is discounting any ideological perspectives, and looking purely at the financial aspects.

We can safely assume that anyone who's using ideology as a reason for down voting on a financial product, is essentially not interested in the success of the platform (and is also not very bright).

Ergo, there is no place in this financial analysis for ideologically driven idiots.

Is downvoting a good value bet - if it's not spam or plagiarism).

I would say not.

I would go further and say that it's a very, VERY, bad bet.

Why?

Again , using my own account as an example - One that has been relentlessly attacked over a 8 or 9 month period ( non of the above caveats in regards to plagiarism or spam)....
This attack has resulted in me researching - to the tune of hundreds of hours....On accounts, on histories, and on transactions.

This attack has resulted in me writing many blogs that are specifically anti hive and the DPoS governance system in general.

This attack has resulted in me using twitter for the same purpose.

This attack has resulted in me now reverting back to 'web2.0' platforms, and also writing on Blurt, Bastyon, and other social media.
(when actions on 'web 3.0' platforms actively encourages you to revert to 'web 2.0', you'd think that maybe just a few warning flags might be raised, wouldn't you?)

This attack has resulted in me being anti DPoS , and has now meant I'm more au fait with how it works, than ever before.

These attacks have now made me express my views about DPoS (and Hive) in very negative terms.

What has all this got to do with poker and value betting?

Think about it....

IF.... (and this is a big 'if' - but my evidence would suggest that it's valid. I'll expand on the reasoning to this later on in the post).

IF this is seen in context of value bets, and an unknown future, we can look at it in this way...

Imagine if my work off hive, (talking about it as I've described above), stops people investing.

Even if it alters the value by 1 cent down over time.
Either by :
a)
Lost value due to people not investing.
I know of more than one person where this is the actual case.
One of these individuals has with more potential investment capital than even the largest whale on here (using Hive stake size as the barometer).

b)
Lost value due to people selling and leaving Hive ( those who disagree with the malicious downvoting and see a potential negative impact on the token price.

Taking one account as an example.

(this account may - or may not - be closely connected to much more than one account.
If they're not colluding, they may very well be part of an organized structure - or even company - and who may have very different ambitions than are advertised.

The account we will use is azircon's

As you can see, the current value, as of time of posting, is $722,000

The hive token value is:

By down voting every post that I've written (and many, many, of the comments), it's created an account with a very adversarial perspectives , re: Hive.
It means that this adversary will (if anything), create actions that will reduce or limit the Hive platform.
(an adversary with an IQ in the top 1% of the IQ bell curve , and with many Aspergers traits to boot).

This account has decided to 'value bet' - by down voting my accounts, thinking it will be more profitable that NOT down voting them.

If we look at the math concerning azircons account(s), and hypothesize that with all my efforts off hive, it means a potential reduction of one cent (or a lack of potential investors - resulting in no uptick of 1 cent)....Then on a purely mathematical - financial investment - model - it's utterly nonsensical !!

.807 cents - minus 1 cent = 0.7907 cent...(or 1.29%)

1,29% of $722,000 = $9313

***(yes I know the calculations can be done other ways, to reflect a more accurate number and I fucked up the numbers - but the principal - and ball park amounts in $$$ - holds firm).

So ....if my efforts off hive resulted in a reduction of account value, by $9313 - and the down voting efforts initiated by azicorn (and others), cost me around a $1,000....

From a purely financial perspective - It's a SERIOUSLY fucking BAD, value bet.

Even if I only influenced the price by 0.2 cent- it's still nearly double the lost value in the azircon account, ( against the downvote loss by myself).

Will all the adults in the room, please stand up...

Am I saying that I DO (or can) influence the price so much?

NO, I don't know this.
No one can ever know this directly.
You can know , however - that a motivated, high functioning asparagus with good people skills is not a good bet, to bet against. ... Yeah, I can be a real good 'people person'. (contrary to how you see my alter ego operate on here)...
My entire career has been in 'people person' orientated industries.
Then throw into the mix, my recent 8 years education in both philosophy and psychology...

I DO know that the higher echelons of hive see me as enough of 'a negative' on the hive block chain to bring over accounts with a 10 million HP to the table, with which to attack my account.

Attacked for speaking my truths.
Shit doesn't just happen, it takes energy - and that energy - that negative pile of shite - has been expended in my direction.
Actions, not words.

I think that collusion is rife throughout the higher echelons of the Hive ecosystem. (and if that is the case, then that might come back to bite some people very hard.....And as for the 'useful idiots', they're really gonna hurt .... Lets see where the 'muh community' is then! lol).

I Digress....

I see the 'piling on' from the same accounts day in and day out - who downvote quality work, and, at the same time, upvott total and utter bilge.. (one of Vitalik Buterins main concerns regarding DPoS governance was the collusion - cabal forming - aspects).
A cynical person might view it as nothing more than self rewarding pyramid scheme at the expense of the real creators..
I see it blatantly in Hive .
And so do others from outside the ecosystem, as it continues to evolve devolve.

This 'downvoting value bet' doesn't seem like a good strategy in terms of financial returns, does it?

I'd say it's a totally fucking stupid strategy.

I'm only one account - out of many - that's been at the brunt of this stupidity.
It's financial illiteracy. (if... you believe that poor image effects potential token prices).

This same thing has happened to many other accounts also - and is happening right now.. .
Many.
They may not be as passionate about Hive as I am, but I can guarantee that they're not marketing the ecossytem in any positive light after the treatment they've received here.

I was using 'the dumb as bag of geologists' account as an example.

For illustrative purposes.
Even smaller 'large accounts' (250K, say), would lose over $2000 ! using the 1 cent example.

THEN WHAT THE FUCK....
DO ALL THE OTHER LARGER ACCOUNTS THINK OF THIS BEHAVIOR THAT COULD BE AFFECTING POTENTIAL TOKEN PRICES ?
SERIOUSLY ?

I dunno how they think (or if they EVEN think at all, at this point), but I DO know that as a large investor in the platform ....I would be seriously pissed off at other peoples accounts - and their actions - lead to potentially wiping off tens of thousand of dollars in value off MY account.
I mean , seriously fucking pissed off.

The above hypothesis is based on NON IDEOLOGICAL motivations.

If there are hidden ambitions in the higher echelons of hive - and are different than being a financial product, then this hypothesis regarding the value of token, is largely moot.

If it IS an ideologically driven platform - a woke mob, leftist/technocratic mentality - Then it's already destined to fail because of it.

If it isn't ?

If the large stakeholders ARE rational actors ?

The why the fuck are 'they' letting - allowing - toxic accounts to potentially fuck up their own investments?

You have the stake power power to stop it anytime you wish.....Unless that is, in reality... you don't ?

... if 'they' don't act rationally - then it's either ideological in nature - or 'a scheme' of some kind.
.....Neither are good models for the success of smaller accounts.

Hive token price can only do three things.
Up
Down
Stay the same.

Any actions that may increase the odds of stagnation or the lowering of the value of the hive token - is either a total, utter, moron, or they're someone with very different, ulterior, motives...

'Value bet' accordingly ...

Because the market will call you ...of that you can be sure...

https://blurt.blog/@lucyreloaded - for hive centric materialhttps://blurt.blog/@lucylin - for my usual gibbberish - that you won't find on Hive.