In three weeks from now, on the 18th of October, Chaos Legion packs go on presale at $4 each for those who have SPS staked. In order to buy in the presale, pack vouchers are required. So, one voucher gives the possibility to buy one pack. These vouchers are tradeable, so it is possible to buy some from people who aren't going to use all of theirs, but I suspect that there won't be a great deal of them out there and those that are will be expensive.
Originally, my plan was going to be to buy 2000-4000 packs, but I had estimated them to be at around 3 dollars max. So, I lowered to 1000, so it would be a $4000 dollar outlay, which I think is pretty significant for 1000 packs. However, going on the calculations, I won't get anywhere near that since the vouchers my SPS stake will generate during the drop based on current stake totals, means I will be lucky to get 3 vouchers a day. That means that even if I wait until the end of the month to purchase, I probably won't even qualify for the smallest discount of 10% for the amount bought over the first 100 packs at a time - damn it.... and I thought I had a fair bit of SPS - considering I am a late starter. And, once the liquid SPS from the large accounts hit staked, my percentage will lower again.
It looks like I am not going to be able to "ape in" like I kinda did with DICE packs at all, as I am just not a large enough stakeholder to make it possible. This is not the end of the world as if I want to I can buy after the presale, but I am a little disappointed, which opens up the potential for FOMO, but I just can't warrant getting large amounts of additional SPS stake (I bought some on announcement) in order to buy a few more packs, but still not have the potential to get enough to have additional benefits over the open sale. I am not going to compete with the whales on this one and with 15 million packs available, I will likely have a fair amount of time after presale to buy my fill.
However, I have over 10,000 SPS staked at the moment, which has a street value of around 3800 dollars, which is a mixture of airdrop and market purchases. If this gets ~3 vouchers a day, that likely means there are going to be a lot of people who are going to get fractions of vouchers a day, meaning that they are going to have to wait several days to buy individual packs or sell their vouchers on the market. I suspect that many are going to be selling vouchers, since there is very little benefit to buy presale, considering the chances of getting the valuable cards is so small. This means that more of the drop cards will go to those who have the most vouchers and there are some very large SPS holders out there.
I think that this lowers the incentive to buy new packs in the open sale also, as if this is the way presales will be, it will continually be the same group of heavily staked users who will continually get the majority of the best cards. While there should be an early investor bonus, if it ends up creating a few monsters that dominate everything, will there be a point for new players to come in as investors?
Honestly, I don't know, but I am trying to work out what is the best path forward for myself, which means trying to also predict what other people are going to do. The investment side of the game is far more complicated (and addictive) than the game itself for me, as there is a complexity in the numbers that are very hard for me to calculate and a whole lot of human nature unknowns to account for - which is more my kind of game to play.
Over the next few weeks, I am sure I will spend some time parsing the information and working out a "game plan" for myself with my
three four Splinterlands gurus to help. But, I am now far less certain as to what is the best course of action for me than I was pre-announcement than I am post-announcement. One benefit is though - I thought I was prepared to collect many thousands of dollars in order to buy the presale, but now I don't have to, since I won't have enough vouchers to warrant it. That means that I can stay in on other things and wait for some market pumps instead.
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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