Crypto Analysis | Bear Market or Middle of the Bull?
Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
There is no way of sugar coating it; the current ongoing bear sentiment is painful to bear
Hive is (almost) back to bear prices with 20 cents (!). Who would have thought it could happen so quickly? While I did write about this last week Hive 16 or 60 cents it's brutal to see it play out. But my point here is that I actually look at the recent developments somewhat positive.
-This crash back to ~20 cents is the nature of the Hive fractal. While the trend change could have come anywhere from 60 to ~20 cents, the fact that we are now back at these bottom prices tells me that a trend change is imminent. This is the prediction from last week:
This is exactly what one would expect when looking at the way Hive moves as all other bull fractals moved in the same way. This is just the macro fractal playing out!
The future movement of Hive is (like all other cryptos) still dependent on bitcoin. So we have to look at BTC in order to figure out if we can expect the dramatic trend change as suggested in the first chart.
If you have been following my crypto analyses for a while you might remember when I laid out the macro perspective for bitcoin at the end of last year:
This channel marked with orange trend lines back then successfully predicted the price of BTC up to ~40k. Back then I expected bitcoin to head back downwards to remain within this channel. The reasoning for this was the last bull cycle where price fluctuated within this channel for a good while as well. As you can see I expected a correction back to 20k.
Then at ~40k levels we saw Elon Musk telling the world that he would accept bitcoin for buying Teslas. The market exploded upward and we reached ~60k; a development that I hadn't anticipated (and was impossible to anticipate). But my thesis is this: The main pattern shown in the chart is still in play; the bull market is still in tact and has shifted to 2022
If so, this would be the latest bull market relative to the 4 year halving. But not by too much; only by about half a year which doesn't seem to be that much out of the ordinary.
The bull market ending now would be extremely awkward; in fact it wasn't a bull market with only about a 13x. Previous bull markets had 100x+. So this would be an order of magnitude lower.
If this scenario plays out, a drop to ~20k should happen in the next weeks and a trend change should bring back the price gradually to 30k and beyond.
Current selling pressure is extreme with a coming death cross and a confirmed head and shoulders pattern. It seems that everyone is expecting price to drop much further which puts the bulls out of power.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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